frontier tech

~/frontier $ definition

Frontier technology is a coverage lens applied across sectors. A company belongs in it when its value depends mainly on resolving a technical or physical uncertainty rather than on near-term demand. A technology leaves coverage when the question shifts from whether it can be made to work to whether enough of it can be sold.

~/frontier $ view

Our working view, stated so it can be tested.

1. 01 the binding constraints are physical

   Progress in most frontier domains is now limited less by ideas than by fabrication capacity, power, permitting and materials. For now, the layers that supply those inputs capture a larger share of value than the applications built on top of them.

2. 02 the domains are converging

   Advances in compute feed biology, materials and robotics, and those fields feed back into compute. Exposures that look diversified by sector can share a single underlying dependency.

3. 03 sector labels misread the risk

   A frontier company's value turns on a technical milestone, not on the next four quarters of demand. Analysis built for steady-state businesses tends to misjudge both what success is worth and how failure happens.

4. 04 graduation is the event that matters

   A frontier technology matures when the question changes from whether it can be made to work to whether enough of it can be sold. Locating that transition is the focus of the research.

Reviewed quarterly, with a record of what would change it.

~/frontier $ domains

Lines connect domains where progress in one is a direct input to the other.

compute

chips, memory, packaging and the tools that make them

exotic compute

quantum, photonic and neuromorphic computing

power

grid, generation for compute load, advanced fission and fusion

carbon and industrial process

carbon removal and lower-carbon cement, steel and chemicals

advanced materials

next-generation batteries, electronic and structural materials

bio

AI-driven drug design, genome engineering and biomanufacturing

intelligence

foundation models, agents and AI-native applications

embodiment

industrial robotics, humanoids and robotaxis

defense and autonomy

autonomous systems, sensing and counter-drone

space

launch, satellite constellations and Earth observation

Watch list: brain-computer interfaces, space-based solar power, room-temperature superconductors, longevity biology.

~/frontier $ how we work

coverage

ten domains plus a watch list, reviewed quarterly

method

primary documents, technical literature, company disclosures and practitioner conversations

output

briefs, deep dives and thematic reviews, with equal weight given to what would falsify the view