defense and autonomy

Which new suppliers are moving from prototype to production, and what funds it.

Militaries want large numbers of cheaper, software-driven systems: drones in the air, at sea and on land, defenses against drones, and software that links sensors to weapons. In trials, much of this works. The harder problem is buying it. Budgets are set years ahead, and new suppliers must move from small prototype contracts to steady production orders, which only a funded program provides.

The shift is requested, not enacted.
About $53.6 billion of the $54.6 billion autonomy request for fiscal 2027 depends on a reconciliation bill that has not passed, and the year began on a continuing resolution that bars new starts. Golden Dome follows the same pattern: of its $17.5 billion request, about $0.4 billion is in regular appropriations. Whether this money is enacted by mid-2027 is the main test.
A handful have crossed into production.
Collaborative Combat Aircraft, uncrewed surface vessels, small drones and German loitering munitions now have production orders with new entrants. Most other new-entrant work, including Golden Dome space-based interceptors, low-cost long-range missiles and high-power microwave weapons, remains at prototype or pre-production stage.
Cost and schedule are the open risks.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in May 2026 that Golden Dome would cost about $1.2 trillion over 20 years, against the program office's estimate of $185 billion. GAO's 2026 weapons assessment found the Army's second hypersonic battery late by at least six months and a Navy hypersonic design not yet final.
Ceilings overstate the change.
Agreements worth "up to" $10 billion or $20 billion set permission, not spending. The 100 largest venture- and private-equity-backed defense firms received about 0.5% of defense contract obligations in fiscal 2025.
Incumbents are adapting, not retreating.
Primes hold the munitions base and are signing multi-year production frameworks for interceptors and rocket motors. New entrants mostly win alongside primes rather than in place of them.

what would change the view

  • Reconciliation or regular appropriations deliver at least $10 billion for autonomous systems in fiscal 2027, and production orders (not prototypes) follow within a year.
  • Collaborative Combat Aircraft Increment 1 quantities are cut, or Increment 2 prototypes go only to traditional primes, which would show the shift stalling at the pilot stage.
  • The share of defense contract obligations going to the largest venture- and private-equity-backed firms rises above about 2%, with production orders a growing part of it.

map

scoreboard Production dollars to new entrants: money committed to buy fielded quantities from companies outside the traditional prime base, counted at first order, not at contract ceiling. No public dataset reports this directly; the chart places each company at the highest stage it has reached.

Each company at the highest procurement stage it has reached as of 3 November 2026; a grey tail runs back from an earlier stage reached in the same period. The shaded gap between prototype and first production order is where most programs stall. Contract ceilings are not counted as orders. Filled dots: listed company; hollow: private. Primes are shown for reference.

Fiscal 2026 funding level (left dot) against the fiscal 2027 request (right dot), US$ billions, log scale. Most of the increase for autonomy sits in a reconciliation bill Congress has not passed; a continuing resolution holds spending at fiscal 2026 levels through 11 December 2026.

players

Listed companies are included where the domain's sub-areas are a material, disclosed part of their business. Private companies are included only if they have delivered systems to, or hold a disclosed production-stage order from, a NATO-member defense ministry, confirmed by a government statement or two independent reports. Contract award values are shown; funding amounts are not shown for anyone.

Andurilprivate
air, sea and counter-drone systems, command software · CCA Increment 1 production contract for the FQ-44A, value not disclosed (17 Jun 2026). Also one of 12 Golden Dome space-based interceptor prototype awardees (disclosed Apr 2026); its Army agreement of up to $20B is a ceiling.
General Atomicsprivate
air autonomy · CCA Increment 1 production contract for the FQ-42A, value not disclosed (17 Jun 2026). The other Increment 1 producer; the fiscal 2027 CCA procurement request is $996.5M.
Shield AIprivate
autonomy software, VTOL drones · One of three firms in the next phase of the CCA mission autonomy competition (Jun 2026). A primary autonomy provider is expected by summer 2027; V-BAT drones are in service with US forces.
Saronicprivate
sea autonomy · Production agreement for 10 Marauder vessels (Sep 2026). The Navy cited an average of about $40M per vessel across 30 ordered from three builders.
Castelionprivate
low-cost long-range missiles · Navy order of $23.4M for 50 pre-production Blackbeard missiles (16 Jun 2026). A May 2026 framework sets at least 500 a year, only after testing and validation; no value or order is attached to it.
Epirusprivate
high-power microwave · Army award of $43.5M for two IFPC-HPM Gen II systems (Jul 2025). No production order found.
Skydioprivate
small drones · Order of more than $52M for more than 2,500 X10D via Atlantic Diving Supply (Mar 2026). Selected for the Army's Short Range Reconnaissance program in 2022.
Nerosprivate
small strike drones · About 14,000 Archer drones in the second Drone Dominance phase, more than $100M including payloads (30 Sep 2026). Drone Dominance buys through repeated competitions.
Helsingprivate
loitering munitions, software · Bundeswehr first call-off of about EUR 270M for HX-2 loitering munitions (26 Feb 2026). Contract signed 26 Feb 2026 under its own framework, capped at EUR 1B pending further approval.
Starkprivate
loitering munitions · Bundeswehr first call-off of about EUR 270M for Virtus loitering munitions (26 Feb 2026). Contract under its own framework, capped at EUR 1B pending further approval.
Palantirlisted, Nasdaq: PLTR
command and targeting software · Letter dated 9 Mar 2026 directs Maven Smart System to become a program of record by the end of fiscal 2026. Army enterprise agreement with a ceiling of up to $10B (2025).
Kratoslisted, Nasdaq: KTOS
jet drones, engines, hypersonic test · Marine Corps development agreement, $231.5M, awarded to a Northrop Grumman-led team using the Valkyrie (8 Jan 2026). Northrop Grumman leads the team; Kratos's share is not disclosed.
AeroVironmentlisted, Nasdaq: AVAV
loitering munitions, small drones · $186M Switchblade order under a $990M Army IDIQ (26 Feb 2026). Also sells counter-drone systems.
Red Catlisted, Nasdaq: RCAT
small drones · Selected for the Army's Short Range Reconnaissance Tranche 2 production (Nov 2024). Competes with Skydio for Army reconnaissance drone orders.
HIIlisted, NYSE: HII
uncrewed surface vessels · Navy contract for 10 ROMULUS medium uncrewed surface vessels (29 Sep 2026). Ordered alongside Galliano Marine Services and Saronic in the same Navy program.
Karmanlisted, NYSE: KRMN
missile and hypersonic subsystems · Backlog $1.3B (30 Jun 2026). Supplies subsystems to more than 150 customers and programs.
Rheinmetalllisted, XETRA: RHM
loitering munitions, air defense, ammunition · FV-014 loitering munition framework, first call-off EUR 300M (22 Apr 2026). Competes with new entrants in Germany.
Lockheed Martinlisted, NYSE: LMT
interceptors, missiles, hypersonics · Seven-year frameworks for PAC-3 MSE (Jan 2026) and THAAD, 96 to 400 a year (29 Jan 2026). Precision Strike Missile Increment 2 moved to a production IDIQ of up to $1.2B (21 Sep 2026).
Boeinglisted, NYSE: BA
interceptor seekers · Undefinitized contract of about $14.7B to triple PAC-3 MSE seeker output (5 Oct 2026). Awarded by Lockheed Martin under a seven-year framework.
Northrop Grummanlisted, NYSE: NOC
rocket motors, interceptors · Two seven-year frameworks totaling $3B for PAC-3 and THAAD rocket motors (3 Aug 2026). Golden Dome interceptor prototype awardee.
L3Harrislisted, NYSE: LHX
rocket motors, sensing · Opened a solid rocket motor plant in Camden, Arkansas, designed to double current capacity (20 Oct 2026). The government invested $1B in its missile solutions business (closed Apr 2026).

resources

CSIS, Tracking FY 2027 Defense Appropriations, Reconciliation, and the Supplemental Request
Updated tracker of what Congress has and has not funded.
Silicon Valley Defense Group, NatSec100
Annual ranking of venture- and private-equity-backed defense companies, with federal obligation data.
GAO, Weapon Systems Annual Assessment (GAO-26-108457)
GAO's yearly review of cost and schedule across major programs, including hypersonic weapons.
CRS, FY2027 Defense Budget: Funding for Selected Weapon Systems (R49023)
Congressional Research Service table of fiscal 2027 requests by program, including Golden Dome and Collaborative Combat Aircraft.
DefenseScoop, Drone Dominance coverage
Running coverage of drone procurement, the Gauntlet competitions and the autonomous warfare effort.

notes

As of 3 November 2026. Stages: prototype or development award; first production order; multi-year production commitment (framework, recurring orders under an IDIQ, or enterprise agreement with orders); program of record. Contract ceilings and prototype agreements are not counted as production. Euro amounts are converted at the rates in the cited reports. Values are as disclosed by governments or companies; many production awards do not disclose a value. Not investment advice.